Andrew Luck's time to compete in a Super Bowl will come, but it's not here yet. This is still Tom Brady and the Patriots' window of dominance in the AFC, and they'll show why Sunday night.
Luck recorded the biggest win of his career to date on the road against the Broncos last Sunday, as the Colts advanced to the AFC Championship with a 24-13 victory. It was Luck's third playoff win in as many years.
You have to go back to the Colts' selection of Peyton Manning in 1998 to find a quarterback who's played as well as Luck after being drafted with the number one overall pick. Luck led the NFL in touchdown passes this season, and has gone one round further in the playoffs in each of the last three years.
But even though Luck is on the rise, it would be an upset if the Colts defeated the Patriots Sunday. The Patriots have outscored the Colts 144-66 in their last three meetings. These games haven't been close in the past, and that trend will continue unless Luck is nearly perfect.
He has a chance to be, but it's doubtful given his track record against the Patriots. Luck has a career 54 percent completion rate against New England with six touchdowns and eight interceptions. He threw up a four-pick performance in Gillette Stadium in the Divisional Round last January.
Brady, meanwhile, is playing some of the best football he ever has. He has 32 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 100.4 quarterback rating over his last 13 games. It's been 10 years since Brady has posted QB ratings north of 90 in two consecutive playoff games, but the odds are in his favor for a big performance this weekend.
The Patriots' offense as a whole should have its way with the Colts defense. New England running backs have rushed for 480 yards against the Colts over the last two games, as they've pulverized the undersized Indy front seven.
The Colts held the Broncos to 288 yards last Sunday, but Manning could only muster the strength to throw five-yard wobbly screen passes. It will be a different story this week with Brady at full strength, and a potentially potent Patriots running game.
Luck's supporting cast isn't good enough to win without him performing at a Herculean level. He has the talent to do it, but history says he'll turn the ball over a couple of times along the way.
And the Patriots won't miss an opportunity to take advantage of his mistakes. There may not be many Super Bowl runs left for Belichick and Brady. This is a prime opportunity, and favorable match-up that they must capitalize on.
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