The Patriots will take on the Colts for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs this Saturday at Gillette Stadium, and almost everyone has weighed in with his or her predictions.
We didn't want to be left out of the fun here at at BostInno, so we submitted our picks for the big game as well:
Winner
Hayden Bird: Patriots will win, 24-13. I like New England to grind it out, and keep Indy at bay while not totally destroying them. The weather can be an overrated factor, but it will probably play a role in the pace of the game. This clearly favors the Patriots, who have not only been practicing in unfavorable conditions, but have played multiple games in it this season. Not just that, but their power running game, coupled with the Colts' inability to stop the run (they ranked 26th in the league at it) will keep it from being a shootout, and allow a injury-riddled Patriots team to wear down an also-injury-riddled Colts team.
Alex Reimer: Patriots 35 Colts 27.
Both teams will surrender points, as the Patriots and Colts had the 26th- and 20th-ranked defenses in the league this year.
But the Patriots will be victorious because they don’t lose in this round. The Patriots are 8-2 in the divisional round with Tom Brady under center.
Though Brady’s postseason performance has been rather inconsistent since 2004, he lit up the Broncos and Texans in this round the last two years. Brady will have success against a depleted Colts secondary that surrendered 378 passing yards to Alex Smith last week.
Andrew Luck will have success throwing the ball too, but he will pay for any mistakes he makes. If the Colts get down and turn the ball over in the first half, they won’t be able to mount a comeback. The Patriots capitalize on their opponent's mistakes.
The Chiefs inexplicably didn’t cover T.Y. Hilton last week, as he caught 13 passes for 224 yards. That won’t happen against the Patriots. Bill Belichick always succeeds at taking his opposition’s best weapon out of the game. Every other receiver on the Colts is an average player, and they won’t be enough to beat the Patriots regardless of how good Luck is.
Biggest Advantage and Disadvantage For the Patriots
HB: The biggest advantage for the Patriots in this game will be their experience, but not as it might normally be counted. It's more short term than that. What New England has overcome just this year, with injuries, with the elevated media scrutiny, with having mounted several remarkable comebacks, has prepared them for the rigors and expected absurdity of the postseason. Also, rookies and backups have been given ample playing time in pressure situations, and will not be overwhelmed by "the moment."
Having said that, the biggest disadvantage for the Patriots will be the injuries to crucial playmakers. Admirable as some of the replacements have played, there is no substitute for Gronk, Mayo or Wilfork. Missing them on season-deciding 4th and 1's would be an extreme disadvantage, no getting around it.
AR: The Patriots will be able to control this game, given that they are at home and should be able to score early against the Colts' defense.
After getting up early, the Patriots should look to run the ball against the Colts, as their defense is 26th against the run. If the Patriots chew up clock after gaining the lead, they will be able to keep Luck off the field.
The Patriots' defense has remained an opportune unit in the second half of the season, but they haven't been the same without Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard and Devin McCourty are banged up, which means the Patriots' secondary is vulnerable.
Both teams are disadvantaged on defense, so the difference will be the Patriots' experience in this spot. Chuck Pagano is a talented coach and terrific leader, but this is only his third career playoff game as a head coach. He will make a mistake in regards to managing the clock or timeouts.
The Colts have several impressive wins this season, including victories against the 49ers, Seahawks, Broncos and a 28-point comeback in the Wild Card Round against the Chiefs. But playing the Patriots in Gillette Stadium on a Saturday night in the Divisional Round is a different situation. They're not ready for this win ... yet.
Which under-the-Radar Player Will Have a Major Impact?
HB: Patriots defensive tackle Sealver Siliga. He's started four games (and played in five) to close out the season. And in that time, he's amassed three sacks from the defensive tackle position, which is an underrated achievement. His ability to get interior pressure on Andrew Luck, and to help stop the run will be vital. While it sounds crazy, he will probably have more of an overall impact on the game than Chandler Jones, given his centralized role on every defensive play and the fact that he won't attract as many double-teams.
AR: Rob Ninkovich isn’t the most notable player on the Patriots’ defense, but he’s one of the most reliable. Ninkovich had 91 tackles and eight sacks this season at defensive end, and will force a significant turnover or make a big tackle late in this game.
Ninkovich is a symbol for “The Patriot Way,” as he’s transformed from an unheralded linebacker at the end of the roster to one of the key contributors on a Super Bowl contender.
Which Colt Would You Most like to See on the Patriots?
HB: The one Colt I would take has to be T.Y. Hilton. He will be the most complete receiver on the field (for either team). One of the major problems with the New England offense is that, with Aaron Dobson most likely out, there will be no conceivable deep threat for Tom Brady. Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are, by their nature, the opposite of a deep threat, and Gronk being out means it certainly won't be a tight end. This puts considerable pressure on undrafted rookie Kenbrell Thompkins, who despite being hurt for much of the second half of the season, remains the most capable player to get downfield after Dobson.
AR: Defensive end Robert Mathis is one of the most aggressive pass-rushers in the game, and would fit nicely on the Patriots defense.
Chandler Jones had a fine season statistically – finishing with 69 tackles and 11.5 sacks. But there are frequently moments in games in which he disappears.
Opposing offensive lines always have to account for Mathis, and he would automatically become the best player on the Patriots’ defense.
In three years, the answer to this question will be Luck. But for now, it’s Mathis.
Besides Rob Gronkowski, Which Injured Patriot Would Help Most If He Were Activated?
HB: It has to come down to either Wilfork or Mayo, and given that choice, Mayo probably wins by a narrow margin. As much as Wilfork is vital in stopping the run and being an anchor, Mayo's role in commanding the defense on the field has inestimable value. He not only helps plug up running lanes, but also has the all-action capability to snuff out short and medium range passing games.
AR: Mayo would make the biggest impact in this game, and that’s not an insult to Wilfork or anybody else. The Patriots have missed Wilfork’s presence at nose tackle, and have struggled to defend the run in his absence.
But Trent Richardson has averaged 2.9 yards per carry since joining the Colts in September. The Colts won’t beat the Patriots on the ground regardless of who is playing nose tackle.
Mayo would help out in pass coverage, and could blanket half back Donald Brown or tight end Coby Fleener. That would allow Dont’a Hightower to focus solely on stopping the run, which is what he does best.
Given the state of the league, Mayo would be a more valuable addition to the Patriots’ defense than Wilfork.
Photos via UPI, NFL and Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
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