Lost in the midst of the hype surrounding Round 15 of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning on Sunday in Denver is this simple point: Brady doesn't win playoff games; the Patriots do.
It's true that Brady's career postseason win totals are staggering. If the Patriots win on Sunday, it'll be Brady's record-setting 19th playoff victory and sixth AFC title. Brady would have the opportunity to win his fourth Super Bowl, which is a feat that only Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have accomplished.
But much like how win-loss record is one of the most useless ways to assess a starting pitcher's performance in baseball, it's also a rather futile way to evaluate a quarterback's performance in football.
That's not to say a pitcher's win-loss record is completely meaningless, especially when one examines his career totals. Arguably the top 10 pitchers in baseball history have garnered the 10 most career wins, because pitchers don't win 300 games by accident. Quarterbacks don't reach eight AFC Championship Games by accident either. Brady's postseason win total means something.
But the Patriots' extraordinary playoff success over the past 12 years isn't solely because of Brady. When the Patriots have solely relied on Brady to win in January, they've lost.
NFL writer Greg Bedard wrote a column for Sports Illustrated's Monday Morning Quarterback on Tuesday that looks at some of the commonalities between the Patriots' three most recent playoff defeats to the Jets (2010), Giants (2011) and Ravens (2012). Bedard finds that the three clubs played their base defense a total of 14 of 195 snaps, or 7.2 percent of the time in those games. Meaning, for 92.8 percent of the time, the Jets, Giants and Ravens played in nickel or dime packages with extra defensive backs. They dared the Patriots to run the ball.
The Patriots couldn't run the ball effectively in those contests, as they averaged 3.5 yards per attempt in the first halves of all three games. The Patriots have finished no lower than sixth in points per game every year in which Brady has played a full season since 2007, but have averaged a measly 15.8 points per game in their postseason losses over the last seven years.
Brady, in fact, hasn't performed well in two consecutive playoff games since 2004. He's put up a passer rating north of 100 in five postseason match-ups since '04, but has followed up those performances with passer ratings of 74, 57.6, 66.4, 57.5 and 62.5, respectively. Brady's career postseason passer rating is 87.2, which is actually lower than Manning's rating of 88.6.
Few would argue that Manning is a better playoff quarterback than Brady, based on his eight one-and-done's. But the stats illustrate that the two quarterbacks have played similarly in the postseason, despite the fact that one has eight more playoff victories than the other.
One could use a cliche to explain this apparent anomaly, and say, "Brady makes the plays when he has to and Manning doesn't." That's true to an extent. Brady has never thrown a game-losing interception like Manning did in Super Bowl XLVI, for example.
But the likelier explanation for why Brady has enjoyed much more postseason success than Manning is that his team has been better. Manning played his two worst playoff games against the Patriots in 2003 and 2004, throwing five interceptions and only one touchdown in those contests. Strategic mastermind Bill Belichick confused Manning in those games, and caused the future Hall of Famer to panic.
In the 2006 AFC Championship Game in Indianapolis, however, the Patriots' championship-caliber defense was beginning to decline. Tedy Bruschi suffered a stroke the previous year, and veterans such as Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison were starting to show their age. Manning threw for over 300 yards in that contest, and the Colts beat the Patriots by 14 points after outscoring them 32-13 in the second half.
Granted, the Patriots weren't as good as the Colts in '06. Brady's receiving core consisted of retreads such as Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel, whereas Manning had stalwarts Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark at his disposal. The better team won.
This year, there's little doubt that the Broncos are a better team than the Patriots on paper. One can make the case that not a single Patriots' receiver or tight end would start on the Broncos.
Both team's defenses are beat up, as the Broncos lost cornerback Chris Harris for the rest of the postseason with a torn ACL. The Patriots' defense coerced Andrew Luck to throw four interceptions in last Saturday's win, and young players such as Jamie Collins and Logan Ryan appear to be coming along. Aqib Talib seemed as if he was healthy, too, as he held T.Y. Hilton to two receptions in the first half.
But the Broncos' offense is far better than the Colts'. There's a possibility that they'll get up on the Patriots early, especially considering the pleasant weather forecast in Denver for Sunday.
The Patriots have run the ball exceptionally well in their past three games, as LeGarrette Blount has amassed 431 yards and eight touchdowns on 64 carries in that stretch. But the Patriots have also been leading at halftime against the Ravens, Bills and Colts. If the Patriots are down by 17 points in the second quarter on Sunday, it's unlikely that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will continue to call on Blount and Stevan Ridley instead of Brady.
If the Patriots need Brady to carry the team on Sunday, they'll likely come up short. Though many in the media would probably pin a Patriots' loss on Brady, it wouldn't be on him. More than one player loses a football game, just as more than one player wins a football game.
It's a team effort, and the Broncos may just be a better team this year.
Photos via Boston.com, Reuters and David Butler II/US Presswire
↧