Almost instantly after it became official that the Patriots were going to play the Colts in the divisional round of the playoffs, a wave of dismissal emanated from New England. Who are these Colts? They aren't Peyton Manning's Colts. They aren't the Edgerrin James-Marvin Harrison-Reggie Wayne-Dallas Clark Colts. They haven't set any records. And their defense only has half of the old Dwight Freeney-Robert Mathis partnership that used to terrify opposing offensive lines.
Indianapolis signed Deion Branch in an overt attempt to troll the Patriots earlier this week, but compared with some of their New England thefts in the past, this one seemed weak.
Listening to some of the analysts and local radio talk about all of this, it would seem that apparently the Patriots only have to show up to advance to yet another AFC Championship game.
So say various columnists (including one who apparently cares so little about this supposedly mediocre opponent that he didn't mind ripping-off his own description of last year's mediocre playoff opponent). And while it's wrong to say that all fans feel this way (since there are still many shrewd ones out there), many of them made not-so-subtle sighs of relief after it became clear that neither Cincinnati nor Kansas City were coming to Foxboro.
The reality, as it often is in the NFL playoffs, is far different. Indianapolis is very capable of pulling off an upset, and the honest analysis is that it wouldn't even be that crazy of a result.
The Colts are surprisingly similar to the Patriots, and subtly better
What are the defining traits of the 2013 Patriots? It's obvious that they've overcome serious injuries. They've also established themselves as a strong second half team. Additionally, they profit from having a franchise quarterback, and commit few mistakes as a unit.
Now, let's look at the Colts. Weirdly, they are almost a mirror image of New England (which probably accounts for why they've been successful this season).
1. Indianapolis has overcome season-ending injuries to their top tight end (Dwayne Allen), top receiver (Reggie Wayne), top two running backs (Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw), starting guard (Donald Thomas), starting middle linebacker (Pat Angerer), spot-starting defensive lineman (Fili Moala), and spot-starting defensive back (Greg Toler).
2. Of total touchdowns scored on offense in 2013, the Patriots scored 56 percent of them in the second half (26 of 46). The Colts, however, were more of a second-half team, scoring 64 percent of their own touchdowns in the third and fourth quarters (29 of 45).
3. Indianapolis had the fewest giveaways in the NFL, with only 14, and had a turnover differential of +13. The Patriots had a differential of +9, and committed 20 giveaways. Indy also had a slight edge in penalties per game, as they were first in the league (4.1 per game) while the Patriots were second (4.3).
In other words, the Colts are amazingly like their upcoming playoff opponent. They have similar strengths, only this season the Colts have been a little bit better in those areas. Even in the injury category, Indianapolis has overcome a higher number of losses to important players.
Indianapolis has Luck on its side
Clearly, this shouldn't be taken as a shot against Tom Brady, who (despite the annual column half-heartedly saying it) is not in decline. If anything, the Patriots asked more of Brady this year, considering the number of late-game comebacks or near-comebacks, and he emphatically answered the bell.
Still, it's impossible to discount Andrew Luck. As has been proven beyond doubt, he can run, pass, make smart decisions, avoid turnovers, mount comebacks, walk the dog, paint the back porch, etc. He's the quarterback equivalent of a Swiss Army knife, and he's only 24.
It's tough to say that Luck is better than Brady, but he's definitely not too much worse. This isn't Trent Dilfer the Colts are propping up out there. He's as talented as any player at his position, and seems to have the poise to back up the potential.
With the Patriots defense as depleted as it is (especially in their front seven), why would anyone consider it a foregone conclusion that they can stop this guy? He is, after all, only one week removed from the second largest comeback in NFL playoff history (behind only the Bills against the Oilers in January, 1993).
And don't discount the rest of his offense, even without several starters. The 11 offensive players on the field at the beginning of the Kansas City game had an average draft number of 95.9, which is a third round pick. The Patriots? They average 176.8, or a sixth round pick. Talent is not an issue with Indianapolis' offense in case you were wondering.
Patriots are clearly beatable, but not for the reason you think
This won't be a popular topic around too many water coolers in New England, but the Patriots are a far cry from the dominant teams of years past. Is it because of the obvious points (injuries, shaky defense, depleted passing game)?
Not entirely. Here's another line of thinking, which has received a little less attention:
The Patriots have been surprisingly vulnerable in home playoff games to teams that were even less talented than the 2013 Colts.
Consider:
1. The 2009 Ravens were 9-7, and starting second-year quarterback Joe Flacco. Their top wide receiver was 35-year-old Derrick Mason. Despite Flacco going only 4-10 for 34 passing yards TOTAL, Baltimore won, 33-14.
2. The 2010 Jets, who (in case you blacked out that year and somehow forgot) were starting THIS GUY, and still managed a 28-21 win at Gillette. Sanchez actually threw for three touchdowns that day, sending him to his second straight AFC Championship game (which seems like ancient history now, considering how far he's fallen).
3. Last season, a spectacularly mediocre 10-6 Ravens team showed up in New England to decide who would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It ended up being the Ravens, 28-13.
Clearly, there are no guarantees. No matter how favorable a matchup looks on paper, it can morph a million ways when players actually take the field, especially in the NFL.
And for anyone honestly trying to explain-away Indianapolis by using last year's 59-24 Patriots win over the Colts (with Luck in his rookie season), just remember that ten players (including the top two receivers and tacklers) who started for New England in that game are either no longer with the team, or are injured for the rest of the season.
Bearing all of this mind, it's important to remember that the Patriots are by no means underdogs in their own stadium, but neither are they overwhelming favorites. And that's the point. Stop looking past Indianapolis, that's a rookie mistake. The Colts, notably labelled earlier this week as "tomato cans" (a boxing reference to a weak opponent), are no such thing. In fact, they're just like the Patriots. And in some ways, they're even better.
Images via Colts.com & ESPN
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