Though the Colts may not be "tomato cans," the Patriots have to win on Saturday night.
The excuses will be there if the Patriots fall short and get upset at home. They've lost Rob Gronkowski, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes for the season. Their offensive line and secondary is beat up. Aaron Hernandez is in prison for alleged murder. Given the adversity that the Patriots have faced this season, a divisional crown and playoff birth may be all a reasonable fan can ask of them. "Everything else is gravy," the excuse makers say.
Except, the Colts are depleted too. Their number one receiver Reggie Wayne, top tight end Dwyane Allen, top two running backs Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw and starting middle linebacker Pat Angerer are all on IR. Their offensive line and secondary are thin as well. Trent Richardson has averaged 2.9 yards per carry since the Colts acquired him in September for a first-round pick.
The biggest caveat of all, however, is the fact that the Colts still have time on their side whereas the Patriots don't.
Andrew Luck is 24 years old, and appears to be the future of the quarterback position. If the Colts don't win on Saturday, Luck will have more than a decade to lead his team to the AFC Championship Game and beyond.
The same can't be said for 37-year-old Tom Brady, who is 7-7 in his last 14 playoff contests. Brady is still signed for four more seasons after this one, but only one quarterback in NFL history – John Elway – has won a Super Bowl past the age of 37.
Despite the injury to Gronkowski and inconsistencies of the rookie wide receivers, the Patriots finished third in the league in points scored this season. That's a testament to Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, but also means that the offense can't underperform in the playoffs again.
The Patriots have finished no lower than sixth in total points every year in which Brady has played a full season since 2007. But yet, the offense has averaged 15.8 points per game in their five playoff losses over the last seven years. A lot of the blame for the Patriots' recent postseason shortcomings has fallen on their defense, and rightfully so. But the Patriots' offense, after carrying the club through the regular season, has often disappeared when the games matter most.
Bill Belichick knows the offense must be at its best in order for the Patriots to advance in January, and it should be expected that the Patriots score early and often against the Colts' 21st-ranked defense. If the offense fails to perform, Belichick won't blame it on the losses of Gronkowski and Hernandez. Belichick knows what's at stake on Saturday, especially in terms of his own legacy.
Belichick is 61 years old, and knows that history hasn't been kind to coaches of his age. The average age of a Super Bowl winning head coach is 49, and only four coaches have ever won a championship over the age of 60. Belichick last won a Super Bowl when he was 52 in 2004, and no head coach has gone longer than six years in between championships.
As long as Belichick and Brady are with the Patriots, the team will be expected to win the AFC East and possess a realistic chance of reaching the Super Bowl each season.
But as the years pass, the odds of the Patriots winning the Super Bowl with Belichick and Brady decreases. No season can be viewed as gravy when the championship window is closing.
Photos via USA TODAY Sports and Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports
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